How to interpret links into decision nodes and values associated with decisio...

[Anders L Madsen]

How to interpret links into decision nodes and values associated with decision nodes?

Links pointing to decision nodes in influence diagrams indicate time precedence: The parents of a decision node must have been observed when the decision is made. The Hugin tool computes the optimal action to take under the assumption that all future decisions will be made in an optimal manner. Therefore, it is necessary to specify a directed path connecting all decisions -- this path gives the order in time for the decisions.
When all parents of a decision node D (and all prior decisions and their parents) are observed and propagated, Hugin will display the expected utility of the different actions of D. Note that the values displayed for decisions further in the future or when not all parents are observed cannot be interpreted in this simple manner.